Yesterday we proposed a scenario in which Andy Pettite winds up a Met in 2009. While fanciful, the thought experiment did serve to highlight how unlikely a Pettite return to the Bronx now seems. So without Andrew Eugene, who should take the role of 5th starter on the Yankees?
Well the problem, first of all, is that the team is not really looking for a 5th starter. And no, this isn’t just semantics. It’s pretty clear at this point that Joba Chamberlain won’t be allowed take to the mound every fifth day and pitch 6 or 7 innings. A strict innings cap of around 140 will probably be imposed, and it’s likely that the team wants to save some of those innings for the playoffs. So, immediately the Yankees need someone who is going to slot in as more than just a 5th starter. The second problem is A.J. Burnett’s tendency to head to the D.L. whenever something tweaks or pains him. And then you have to keep in mind the possibility of a Chien-Ming Wang like freak injury. And C.C. Sabathia has been worked so hard over the last few years that his arm might just fall off.
All this is to say, the Yankees (and all teams) need pitching depth. So do they have it? Well they have Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Aceves, Chase Wright, and *gulp* Kei Igawa. Beyond that there are some talented pitchers with very little professional experience. Hughes is projected to be a decent starter. Bill James projects a 3.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25. Other projection systems come up with more conservative numbers, ERA around 4.33. Ian Kennedy is fairly hard to predict, but CHONE projects a 4.41 ERA, for what it’s worth. Aceves’s peripherals suggest he won’t have much success, and Chase Wright is probably a Triple-A pitcher. Kei Igawa. Ew. That’s all. Just ew.
So this would seem to paint a clear picture, the Yankees need another starter. But who? The answer would seem to be Ben Sheets. The projection systems predict he’ll throw at least 140 innings, and do so with efficiency, with a WHIP around 1.20. But you have to wonder why EVERY team has been so cool on him. If there were no health concerns, Sheets would be a prime target, so there has to be something wrong with him, right?
If Sheets is healthy, he’s the Yankees’ answer. If not, they should look for a Brad Penny, John Smoltz type. Maybe Pedro Martinez? The thing to keep in mind is that signing one more veteran pitcher isn’t going to be a signal that the Yankees are abandoning their young pitchers. No matter what the team does, you can be almost certain that you’ll see Hughes, Kennedy and at least one more young pitcher take the mound for the Yanks.
Consider the following scenario: Andy Pettite returns to New York to be a part of opening the new stadium in 2009 and to help the team get back to the playoffs after a disappointing season. And he’s even willing to take a pay cut, say $13.5 million or thereabouts. Only here’s the catch — he’s wearing blue and orange and helping open up CitiField. While it might seem a stretch to imagine Pettite adjusting to a brand new work environment, the Mets certainly have a need, and if the stories of Andy being piqued by the Yankees “low” offer (again $10,000,000 — sooo many zerooooes) are true, then how better to get back at the franchise than by signing with their crosstown rivals? Two snags: Andy may not be keen on the idea, and possibly more importantly: the Mets might not see Pettite as a player worth that kind of money. It’s a long shot, but it would be interesting to see.
Well this isn’t baseball related, but we can’t resist a great human interest piece. Via ESPN, the mayor of Pittsburgh has begun the petition process to officially change his name from Luke Ravenstahl to Luke Steelerstahl, in anticipation of the Steelers AFC Championship match-up with the Baltimore Ravens. Now that’s commitment. Fortunately for [Insert politically useful word here]stahl, he won’t have to worry about changing his name to Luke Piratestahl anytime soon.
Filed under: Around the League | Tags: Bad Choices, Derek Lowe, Javy Vazquez, The Braves
After a start to the off-season marked by failed trades and missed free agents, the Braves finally made a big splash.
The Braves impressed Derek Lowe during a meeting at Turner Field last week and then lured him to Atlanta with the four-year deal that he and his agent Scott Boras were seeking.
A Major League source confirmed on Tuesday that Lowe and the Braves have agreed on a four-year, $60 million offer. The deal is expected to be finalized when the 35-year-old right-hander travels to Atlanta for a physical that will likely be performed on Friday or Saturday.”
The only one of the “Big Three” free agent pitchers not to sign with the Yankees, Derek Lowe will probably now be seen as the Braves ace, and handed the ball on Opening Day. This, of course, in spite of the fact that Javier Vazquez has been significantly more valuable over the last three years. The indispensable Fan Graphs informs us that from 2006-2008 Vazquez had Value Wins totals of 5.2, 5.2, and 5.3. Lowe’s totals over the same time: 5.0, 3.2, 3.5. As you can see, Lowe was only as valuable as Vazquez once in the last three years. Also more valuable than Lowe last year, Braves pitcher Jair Jurrjens, who posted a Value Wins total of 4.0. In fairness to the Braves, Fangraphs has Lowe valued at $15.8 million last year, so if he can keep up that level of production, his dollar value and salary will coincide perfectly. Of course, it is highly doubtful that a 35 year old pitcher will avoid some kind of decline over the final four years of his thirties. Lowe slots in nicely as a second or third starter, and if Jurrjens takes another step forward and Vazquez gets a bit of a bump from moving to the NL, then the Braves will have quite the interesting rotation. Now, if only they had some offense…
Here at DTS we go in for our fair share of mockery. We tend to employ a light, but brilliantly satirical, tone, and we have a great fondness for pointing out the absurd. Generally, however, we direct our mighty wit at the men and women of MLB — the execs, the GMs, the owners, the umpires, and above all else, the players. We don’t usually take shots at other bloggers or members of the mainstream media (whatever that means). There are plenty of other brilliant and talented writers who point out the failures and shortcomings of the people who cover the sport we love. Just take a look at someone like King Kaufman. But, on occasion, we’ll come across a premise so laughable, or content so offensive, that we feel compelled to comment.
Enter Cory Humes of “Pirate Revolution,” who recently wrote a blog post advising Neal Huntington to trade Nate McLouth for a boatload of prospects, and then turn around and pry Nick Swisher from the Yankees for Zach Duke and John Grabow. Now let’s be fair, Mr. Humes’ piece is not offensive, nor is it truly absurd. The website as a whole seems to be well laid out and full of thoughtful and useful work. In fact, any Pirates fan would be well advised to make regular visits to the site.
With that said, we must take Mr. Humes to task, somewhat, for this particular proposal. Consider first Mr. Humes’ reasoning for trading McLouth:
In 2008 at age 26, Nate McLouth hit .276/.356/.497 (a 126 OPS+) with 26 HR and 94 RBI in 597 at-bats. In 2006 and 2007, McLouth had posted OPS+ lines of 74 and 110 while being used as a part-time player. He earned the league minimum in all three seasons and is now arbitration-eligible for the first time. The Pirates’ attempt to sign McLouth to a contract extension was reportedly rebuffed when McLouth and his agent felt as if the player wasn’t being valued fairly.
No matter what happens in 2009, the Pirates can’t come out ahead.
If McLouth performs as he did in 2008, then his price almost certainly will skyrocket. He will be two seasons away from free agency and should command an eight-figure average annual salary. If McLouth regresses in 2008, then the Pirates would be right to question whether or not the player was a one-year wonder and would be wise to go season-to-season with McLouth’s contract.”
This line of reasoning is essentially inarguable; if McLouth continues to hit, he will start earning some big paychecks; if he regresses, a long-term contract extension would seem to be an unnecessary risk. The problems come from the conclusion Humes’ draws from all this:
Trade Nate McLouth now for a haul similar to the one Billy Beane received in January of 2008 [from the White Sox in exchange for Nick Swisher].”
This haul, two pretty nifty pitching prospects (Gio Gonzalez and Fautino De Los Santos) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Ryan Sweeney), seems like a hefty price to expect in return for a poor-fielding CF who has had one full year of duty — albeit a nicely productive year. Moreover, the number of teams willing to part with two young pitching prospects for a player who is soon to be due a sizable raise via arbitration is small indeed. Until recently, young pitching had come to be the most valued commodity in the game. Now, cash is probably the most valued commodity. Humes’ trade proposal demands that a team surrender both of these.
Finally, at the end of the piece, Humes verges into the entirely implausible.
Then, replace McLouth’s offensive production in the lineup by acquiring Nick Swisher from the Yankees at a discount.
After signing Mark Teixeira to a monstrous $180 million contract, the Yankees have a surplus of players at first base and in the outfield. Swisher and former Pirate Xavier Nady are believed to be on the trade block. ESPN’s Rob Neyer feels that the Yankees need another bullpen arm, and Cashman is rumored to have interest in stockpiling pitching depth. Send John Grabow and Zach Duke to New York.
*snip*
The Yankees, though, might feel as other clubs have: that the Pirates are inept, and their fringe players can be redeveloped. The Yankees might still see the promise Duke showed as a rookie in 2005. And in Grabow, they would receive one of the top left-handed relievers in the game in 2008.”
The Yankees already have a player who has been touted as “one of the top left-handed relievers in the game” — in fact, they got him at the trade deadline from the Pirates. As for Zach Duke? He doesn’t represent an upgrade over Ian Kennedy, Al Aceves, Phil Coke, Chase Wright or any number of unproven Yankees minor leaguers. Swisher is a quality player, and the only Yankee outfielder not named Cabrera or Gardner who will be under contract beyond 2009.
Humes is probably right to suggest that the Pirates would be best served to trade McLouth now, while his value is at its maximum, but — unfortunately for Pirates fans — Humes is probably overestimating what the team could get in exchange, and certainly underestimating Brian Cashman.
In fairness, Mr. Humes addresses these and other issues in the comments of the piece. And none of this is intended as disrespect towards him or Pirate Revolution — as previously stated, it is our humble opinion that this is a highly admirable blog. Mostly, we just want to point out that when a team has a surplus at a certain position, those players tend to become the focus of some fairly one-sided trades. The Yankees would be best served to hold onto their surplus unless a truly tempting trade proposal comes along, and Brian Cashman assuredly knows this.
