Dropped Third Strike

Like a 65 year old Jewish retiree, we’re experiencing an overwhelming need to flee New York and relocate to Florida. It might have something to do with the weather here. Or maybe it’s because Morty and Ruth just got a condo in Boca and they won’t shut up about it. Or maybe it’s because the Yankees and Mets have floundered to sub-.500 records, and the Rays and Marlins have soared to the top of their respective divisions. With the help of the handy tools and stats over at The Hardball Times and Baseball Reference we took a look at the Florida teams and how their seasons have broken down so far. Today we’ll cover those devilish Rays, and tomorrow we’ll handle the Marlins.

At first glance, it would seem the Rays have been rewarded for dropping Satan from their team name, as they’ve managed to survive both a pre-season injury to their ace and a come-down year for their best hitter (Carlos Peña–down from last year’s 172 OPS+ to the much more meagre 111 OPS+) to lead the AL East. To be sure, they’ve had some luck, but only a little bit. Using Bill James’ Pythagorean Win-Loss formula, which determines what a team’s record ought to be based on their runs scored vs. runs allowed, we see that the Rays record should be 30-23, still a good record, and still better than the Red Sox in the loss column (by one game), though now they’d be behind in the win column by 2 games. Clearly the team’s success can’t be explained by mere luck in the run differential category. So let’s take a look at a few key players and positions that seem to be making the difference, and compare them to their 2007 counterparts. (Keep in mind that 53 games do not a season make, so it’s a bit of an apples and oranges comparison).

C-2007: Dioner Navarro, .227/.286/.356

C-2008: Dioner Navarro, .374/.415/.470

Well the Rays didn’t get a new catcher for this season, but it sure does look like they did. Now Navarro has only appeared in 33 games so these numbers are a bit deceiving. What’s making everything look so gosh darned impressive is that remarkably high batting average. It’s next to impossible that he’ll keep that up, considering that his BABIP (batting average on balls in play–essentially how many times he gets a hit when he makes contact with the ball and it goes fair) is ludicrously high at .420. A high BABIP is almost always a function of luck, pure and simple, and generally regresses to the mean which is generally around .300. Of course it doesn’t always, just look at Jorge Posada–his BABIP jumped from right around average (.303) in 2006 to .383 in 2007, yanking his numbers way up, and probably drastically increasing the value of the contract he signed in the off-season. So it’s unlikely that Navarro will keep up the batting average, but it’s definitely not outside the realm of possibility. What should really bring joy to Rays’ fans is the increase in slugging percentage. Now .470 isn’t out of this world good or anything, but it’s certainly solid, particularly for a catcher. If you watched the end of Navarro’s 2007, and the beginning of his  2008, you’d see a player who is clearly putting better wood on the ball, more often. So we predict the batting average goes down (way down, to say, .290) but the slug remains up, and Navarro goes from a black hole in the lineup (see the first half of 2007) to a significantly useful part of the lineup.

3B-2007: Akinori Iwamura, .285/.359/.411

3B-2008: Evan Longoria, .252/.330/.464

Looking at these numbers, it doesn’t look like the Rays really upgraded at third base, but let’s consider a few other factors. First, HR totals: Akinori Iwamura, 2007: 7. Evan Longoria, 2008: 7. It took Iwamura 123 games to rack up those seven HR, it’s taken Longoria 43. And those seven give him the third highest home run total on the team. Secondly, Iwamura’s slugging numbers were dragged up by 10 triples last year, a number which he is nowhere near on pace to equal (he currently has 1). Finally, Longoria’s taking over third allowed Iwamura to move over to second–a spot more traditionally suited for someone of his offensive talents–solidifying a position that was in flux for most of 2007 after B.J. Upton moved out to center field. Look for Longoria’s numbers to improve in every category, we’re saying he’ll close out at .275/.350/.475

RF-2007: Delmon Young, .288/.316/.408 

RF-2008: Eric Hinske, .257/.340/.542

Ok, so Hinske has played some 1st and DH as well as RF, but for simplicity’s sake, this is the comparison we’re working with. Just as the A’s are known for wringing the last drops of usefulness out of aging veterans, the Rays are developing a reputation for rehabbing former stud prospects. Last year it was Carlos Peña, this year former Rookie of the Year, Eric Hinske. Hinske’s slugging percentage leads the team, and his 10 HR are also good enough to tie him for the team lead. Delmon Young on the other hand, well at this point he’s best known for an ill-advised attempt at a sliding catch that led to a game-tying, three-run inside the park HR. O, and also for throwing a bat at an umpire back in the minors. What a charmer. (Hat tip, Video Wrap for the visual). Sadly, Hinske’s career numbers argue that this torrid streak is just that, a streak, and not a sign of things to come. But we’re dreamers here at DTS and we’re saying he’ll end the season at .260/.340/.480, with 28 HR. Don’t make us look bad, Eric.

DH-2007: Gregg Norton, .243/.358/.347; Jonny Gomes, .244/.322/.460

DH-2008: Jonny Gomes, .220/.323/.427; Cliff Floyd, .281/.359/.474

With Gregg Norton and his miniscule slugging percentage gone, and Jonny Gomes seeming to have developed into a player able to deliver consistently slightly above average performances, and with the addition of lefty Cliff Floyd (when healthy), Tampa Bay has really shored up the DH. What you see is what you get with Gomes and Floyd, their numbers should remain consistent if they remain healthy(ish). 

That’ll just about do it on the offensive side, now let’s take a peak at the pitching staff.

Starting Pitchers 2007: ERA/W-L/WHIP         Starting Pitchers 2008: ERA/W-L/WHIP

Scott Kazmir:          3.48/13-9/1.38             Scott Kazmir:         1.50/4-1/0.97

Edwin Jackson:       5.76/5-15/1.76             Edwin Jackson:       3.70/3-4/1.45

James Shields:        3.85/12-8/1.11             James Shields:        3.37/2-4/1.14

Andy Sonnanstine:  5.85/6-10/1.35            Andy Sonnanstine:  4.98/6-3/1.38

Jason Hammel:       6.14/3-5/1.53               Matt Garza:            3.78/4-1/1.36

In each of the five slots in the rotation there is visible improvement, particularly in the fifth spot, with Matt Garza (acquired from Minnesota in exchange for Delmon Young [the best thing Delmon has done in his young career]) representing a significant upgrade so far this season. With four starters with ERAs under 4.00, and a strong bullpen anchored by (the now DL-bound) Troy Percival, much of the credit for the Rays strong start belongs to the pitching staff. We’re not going to bother with specific predictions for the entire staff, but look for Garza and Jackson to fall back to around a 4.25 ERA, while picking up a good 10-13 wins, and for Kazmir and Shields to stay strong, on their way to 15 or so wins. 

Well we hope you’ve learned something. (We should all move to Florida?) Of course, the season is young, still 30 games from the half way point, and plenty of things are bound to change. Some early season success stories will fizzle and die (watch out, Eric Hinske), and some players who are off to a slow start will pick it up (uhh, Carlos Peña, hello?). The Yankees will rebound, the R*d S*x will roll, residents of Tampa Bay will continue to send thank you cards to Steve Phillips (they have a picture of Victor Zambrano on the front and Scott Kazmir on the back, with beautiful blue lettering–they’re really quite tasteful). All in all, it’s going to be a hot summer in Tampa, where a young upstart team with a large bulls-eye on their back will try to stave off the inevitable charge of two grizzled old veterans (though that charge will have to be led by young players–Joba, Hughes, Lester, Ellsbury, Pedroia etc.). Next time we’ll have our analysis of the Marlins’ early season success. For now we’re going to go tanning on the back of a double-parked car, or maybe jump in the Hudson. Florida be damned.