Dropped Third Strike

The Padres signed the recently cut Brett Tomko. The excellent Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors thinks this is a no-lose situation for the Pads: 

He actually has good command, posting respectable K/BB ratios in recent years.  The longball did him in this year with the Royals.  A move back to the NL and PETCO should help, and there’s no risk for the Padres at the minimum salary.”

Dierkes is right on the money. Yes, Tomko struggled in K.C. — and in fact he didn’t exactly excel in S.D. during a brief stint with them last year (2-1, 4.61, 5 HR allowed in 7 appearances). But as Dierkes points out, it was the home runs that killed Tomko, in K.C. and also in S.D. But take a look at the percentage of fly balls that turned into home runs for Tomko:

• 2007 (S.D.): 20.3% of fly balls went for home runs
• 2008 (K.C) 16.0% of fly balls went for home runs.

According to The Hardball Times ”research has shown that about 11% to 12% of outfield flies are hit for home runs. For pitchers, significant variations from 11% are probably the result of “luck.” 20% and 16% are ridiculously high, especially for Tomko who had a career average of 10.6% of fly balls going for home runs prior to moving to San Diego in mid 2007. So chances are good that Tomko’s numbers should be at least decent in S.D., and more importantly, as Dierkes notes, for a prorated share of the league minimum, taking a shot on Tomko is a no-brainer.

Which brings us to our main point. Will somebody please sign Barry Bonds? The man is willing to play for a prorated share of the league minimum, heck he’s willing to play for free. At the start of the season, three reasons were given for not signing Bonds:

1. He’ll be a distraction
2. He’ll cost too much for a guy likely to be hurt and who is a slight risk for falling of a cliff, numbers-wise
3. Only a handful of teams need a lefty DH

Bonds’ willingness to play for a couple hundred thousand dollars renders all three of these objections absurd. The media attention he’ll receive will be much less if a team signs him for that amount than if they had signed him for several million, and much less than if he’d been signed in the offseason. Signing him for peanuts will make the move hard to criticize, and with the season in full-swing, the big story will be, “can Barry help this team win,” not “will Barry tear this team’s locker room apart.” Obviously the cost is a non-factor now, and if taking a chance on Brett Tomko is advisable at this price, then taking a chance on Bonds is essentially a must. And as for teams not needing a left-handed DH, well all we have to say is if, as has been rumored, a team like the Rays is looking at trading for Ken Griffey Jr. why on earth would they not look at Bonds first? Junior would cost millions of dollars and some middling prospects. Bonds would cost chump change and no players. (Incidentally Brett Tomko was a piece of the 2000 trade that sent Junior to the Reds). And if the Rays aren’t interested, then how about the Red Sox look at him as a replacement for Big Papi? Even if Ortiz’s return forces Bonds to the bench, what are they losing? He’ll be the cheapest player on that bench. Or how about the Indians? They could either give up on the struggling Travis Hafner or move him to first base. The Royals or the Mariners are in desperate need of a bat, and Bonds seems willing to play anywhere, even for a losing franchise. For the suddenly competitive Twins, he represents a huge upgrade over Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe. The A’s could use him either to platoon with Frank Thomas or to simply take over for the oft-injured Big Hurt. If the Rangers feel Milton Bradley is healthy enough to play the outfield, then adding Bonds would make their lineup quite terrifying. The Blue Jays are in terrible need of a quality hitter, any quality hitter. Even the Yankees could use him, with the trio of Giambi/Damon/Matsui so prone to injury. To repeat: Brett Tomko has a job, Barry Bonds doesn’t. Madness.