Dropped Third Strike

Another trade deadline behind us, another year of Manny demanding a trade, and nothing coming of it, and he finally gets his wish. In a rare instance of a trade with no clear loser (Joe Torre excepted), the Red Sox replaced Manny with a more versatile, younger outfielder with similar stats, the Dodgers finally got an aging former All-Star outfielder who will actually produce runs for them, and the  Pirates continued to acquire multiple mediocre prospects. (This is a puzzling approach to trading, but you see it all the time; a GM with a coveted major leaguer ships him off in exchange for 4 mid-level prospects. Presumably the thought process goes something like this: 4 players with a 20% chance of being productive major leaguers are more valuable than one with an 80% chance, and by acquiring a number of mid-level prospects, you put yourself in a position to plug more holes on a team that is in a rebuilding process. But really doesn’t this approach just make it more likely that you will continue the cycle of filling the lineup and rotation with average [at best] players? Interestingly, Brave’s GM, Frank Wren — an intriguing executive who is increasingly showing himself capable of making canny moves — eschewed this approach when dealing the most sought after position player of this trading season. He sent Mark Teixera over to the Angels, not for a handful of young players, but for 1 mid-range pitching prospect, and 1 sure-fire, young major league first baseman. It’s not an exciting move — Casey Kotchman doesn’t set fans salivating at the thought of his untapped potential, but it is a smart one). 

It’s noteworthy that Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay, Mark Teixera, Xavier Nady, Ivan Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr, C.C. Sabathia, Rich Harden, and Joe Blanton were all traded in the last few weeks. Over the last few years, major deadline deals had been sorely lacking, as front offices around the league began valuing their own prospects more highly, and became less willing to part with them in exchange for established stars. The success of young players like Justin Verlander and Jonathan Papelbon seemed to confirm to teams that they were best served by holding on to their young prospects. Now, the pendulum seems to be swinging back the other way, with teams once again bidding farewell to their young ‘uns. We can’t help but wonder if the failures of players like Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and others have started to wear away teams’ confidence in their young prospects. The last few years saw the perceived value of established veteran major leaguers at a low ebb, the next few should see it rise once more. This last offseason, players like Kenny Lofton, David Wells, and (of course) Barry Bonds were left unsigned, as teams decided to turn inwards, and use young players to fill their needs. But one need look no further than the Manny trade to realize that teams are beginning to question this approach. Tired of waiting for Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to develop power and consistency, the Dodgers pounced on Ramirez.

We expect to see a new trend emerge over the next 3-4 seasons. Teams will start to look to sell high on hot prospects, for fear that they will suddenly fall off a cliff and lose all value. (See Jose Tabata. Once considered the Yankees best non-pitching prospect, a player who could have been traded straight up for someone like X. Nady, Tabata has had a horrible ‘08 in the minors, has asked to be released by the Yankees, and finally wound up as little more than a throw-in in the the Nady deal.) And the most highly regarded players will no longer be flashy 20 year olds, but instead will be consistent 27-32 year olds with established track records. And that is as it should be.