Dropped Third Strike

After a start to the off-season marked by failed trades and missed free agents, the Braves finally made a big splash.

The Braves impressed Derek Lowe during a meeting at Turner Field last week and then lured him to Atlanta with the four-year deal that he and his agent Scott Boras were seeking.

A Major League source confirmed on Tuesday that Lowe and the Braves have agreed on a four-year, $60 million offer. The deal is expected to be finalized when the 35-year-old right-hander travels to Atlanta for a physical that will likely be performed on Friday or Saturday.”

The only one of the “Big Three” free agent pitchers not to sign with the Yankees, Derek Lowe will probably now be seen as the Braves ace, and handed the ball on Opening Day. This, of course, in spite of the fact that Javier Vazquez has been significantly more valuable over the last three years. The indispensable Fan Graphs informs us that from 2006-2008 Vazquez had Value Wins totals of 5.2, 5.2, and 5.3. Lowe’s totals over the same time: 5.0, 3.2, 3.5.  As you can see, Lowe was only as valuable as Vazquez once in the last three years.  Also more valuable than Lowe last year, Braves pitcher Jair Jurrjens, who posted a Value Wins total of 4.0.  In fairness to the Braves, Fangraphs has Lowe valued at $15.8 million last year, so if he can keep up that level of production, his dollar value and salary will coincide perfectly.  Of course, it is highly doubtful that a 35 year old pitcher will avoid some kind of decline over the final four years of his thirties.  Lowe slots in nicely as a second or third starter, and if Jurrjens takes another step forward and Vazquez gets a bit of a bump from moving to the NL, then the Braves will have quite the interesting rotation.  Now, if only they had some offense…