Dropped Third Strike

Yesterday we proposed a scenario in which Andy Pettite winds up a Met in 2009. While fanciful, the thought experiment did serve to highlight how unlikely a Pettite return to the Bronx now seems. So without Andrew Eugene, who should take the role of 5th starter on the Yankees?

Well the problem, first of all, is that the team is not really looking for a 5th starter. And no, this isn’t just semantics. It’s pretty clear at this point that Joba Chamberlain won’t be allowed take to the mound every fifth day and pitch 6 or 7 innings. A strict innings cap of around 140 will probably be imposed, and it’s likely that the team wants to save some of those innings for the playoffs. So, immediately the Yankees need someone who is going to slot in as more than just a 5th starter. The second problem is A.J. Burnett’s tendency to head to the D.L. whenever something tweaks or pains him. And then you have to keep in mind the possibility of a Chien-Ming Wang like freak injury. And C.C. Sabathia has been worked so hard over the last few years that his arm might just fall off. 

All this is to say, the Yankees (and all teams) need pitching depth. So do they have it? Well they have Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Aceves, Chase Wright, and *gulp* Kei Igawa. Beyond that there are some talented pitchers with very little professional experience. Hughes is projected to be a decent starter. Bill James projects a 3.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25. Other projection systems come up with more conservative numbers, ERA around 4.33. Ian Kennedy is fairly hard to predict, but CHONE projects a 4.41 ERA, for what it’s worth. Aceves’s peripherals suggest he won’t have much success, and Chase Wright is probably a Triple-A pitcher. Kei Igawa. Ew. That’s all. Just ew. 

So this would seem to paint a clear picture, the Yankees need another starter. But who? The answer would seem to be Ben Sheets. The projection systems predict he’ll throw at least 140 innings, and do so with efficiency, with a WHIP around 1.20. But you have to wonder why EVERY team has been so cool on him. If there were no health concerns, Sheets would be a prime target, so there has to be something wrong with him, right? 

If Sheets is healthy, he’s the Yankees’ answer. If not, they should look for a Brad Penny, John Smoltz type. Maybe Pedro Martinez? The thing to keep in mind is that signing one more veteran pitcher isn’t going to be a signal that the Yankees are abandoning their young pitchers. No matter what the team does, you can be almost certain that you’ll see Hughes, Kennedy and at least one more young pitcher take the mound for the Yanks.